After being in hibernation during the climo peak of the season, the Atlantic basin turned on a dime last month with the arrival of a very favorable MJO pulse, and the generally supportive to very supportive conditions for TC development persist as we start the month of October.

Most recently and closest to home, a gyre is apparent over Central America, helping lift up and enhance a wave that has just tracked into the Bay of Campeche on the Atlantic side of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a preexisting trof that has come off northwestern South America, and also an area of low pressure (Invest 96E) on the Pacific side of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. All three of these disturbances are likely to influence development, if any, in the Western Atlantic (Gulf and Caribbean) over the next few days. There is also some potential for 96E to cross over into the Gulf.

Way out in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, recently-named Kirk is now a hurricane and forecast to become an ACE building Major far away from North America, and also a stout low behind Kirk, Invest 91L, is likely to become a TC any day now. 91L's future track is less certain and will be watched.