Active Phase of Atlantic Continues into October
Posted: 03:29 PM 01 October 2024 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 09:34 AM 03-Oct EDT
After being in hibernation during the climo peak of the season, the Atlantic basin turned on a dime last month with the arrival of a very favorable MJO pulse, and the generally supportive to very supportive conditions for TC development persist as we start the month of October.
Most recently and closest to home, a gyre is apparent over Central America, helping lift up and enhance a wave that has just tracked into the Bay of Campeche on the Atlantic side of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a preexisting trof that has come off northwestern South America, and also an area of low pressure (Invest 96E) on the Pacific side of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. All three of these disturbances are likely to influence development, if any, in the Western Atlantic (Gulf and Caribbean) over the next few days. There is also some potential for 96E to cross over into the Gulf.
Way out in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, recently-named Kirk is now a hurricane and forecast to become an ACE building Major far away from North America, and also a stout low behind Kirk, Invest 91L, is likely to become a TC any day now. 91L's future track is less certain and will be watched.
Kirk Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=12 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Kirk
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Kirk
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Kirk
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Kirk (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Kirk
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Kirk
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Kirk -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 91L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=13 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 91L
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 91L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View